I remember shortly after the last election, talking with two of my Liberal friends about what this parliament would look like. The one asked the other, "I wonder which Liberal will be next to cross to the Conservatives?" This was shortly after David Emerson had crossed to sit in cabinet. They both hummed and hawed, so I piped up.
"Joe Comuzzi" I said. We all laughed, moved on, and never talked about it again.
Fast forward 17 moths to today. The Chronicle Journal in my hometown of Thunder Bay, Ontario is reporting that on Tuesday, "Joe Comuzzi will join the Tories."
As much as I don't like to see floor crossings, and as much as I would prefer Joe to run in a by-election, I can't say I am disapointed. In fact, I am fairly excited. Not just because this is the first time I have had a Conservative representing me in Ottawa, but because I know Joe's reasons for his decision are honorable. He is, in my opinion, a riding guy, and he understands that his riding and increasingly himself, do not mesh well with the neo-leftist Young Liberals that are beginning to take over that party. From my three very brief discussions with Comuzzi, I believe he is a good fit with the Conservatives.
The riding however, will still be slow to warm up to the Conservatives.
Thunder Bay is a blue collar, heavily unionized town, who has traditionally voted Liberal federally since the days of CD Howe. The last time there was a Conservative representing the riding now held by Comuzzi, the oldest member in the house (Joe Comuzzi) was only 2. In the last election, Conservative candidate Bev Sarafin placed third with around 8000 votes, while Comuzzi and the dipper candidate fought it out with around 13000 votes each.
Unless Comuzzi changes his mind and decides to run in the next election as a Conservative, I believe that the riding will now go NDP. If he does run again, it is anyone's guess. What Joe will do is warm up the community to the Conservative brand. If after all these years ol' Joe can warm up to the new Conservatives, why not the city of Thunder Bay.
While this may not help the Conservatives party much in a coming election, in that I think the NDP will win in Joe's riding, it may help in the longer run. By helping the Conservative brand in northern Ontario, and hopefully costing the Liberals a usually safe seat, Joe's decision may now lead to an end to the Liberal hegemony that has had a firm grip on the region federally and provincially for years.
Any hope the NDP has in the riding in the long term, is through the old-left trade union wing of the party. The city has already lost enough jobs in the forestry industry, and will only lose more if the environmental movement gets its way. This will put the new-left environmentalists who are taking over the NDP, at odds with the best interests of city.
Hopefully, the Conservatives are going to be much better positioned to win the riding in the future now that ol' Joe has decided that the Conservatives aren't all that scary after all. As the Liberals and NDP continue their progression into the party of the new-left ultra-urban Toronto and Montreal voters, the Conservative party has a great opportunity to turn heads in riding's like Thunder Bay-Superior North where voters are being left behind as their traditional parties cater to seat rich areas of the country that are increasingly out of touch with the concerns of life in Northern Ontario.